.jpg)
In its autumn (March to May) climate outlook, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has stated that only Tasmania will likely experience above-average autumn rain, as it noted that the weak and short-lived La Niña will continue to decay and likely end in mid-autumn.
According to the weather bureau, large parts of central and southeastern Australia will likely have a drier-than-average season; while parts of eastern Australia and Tasmania have an increased chance for a wetter-than-average March.
Daytime and overnight temperatures are also expected to be warmer than average over much of the country from March to May, with strongest chances in northern Queensland and Tasmania. Northern WA is expected to experience cooler nights.
Eastern NSW and southeastern Queensland, meanwhile, have roughly equal chances of a warmer- or cooler-than-average season, BoM said.
Andrew Watkins, BoM's manager for long-range forecasting, said the tropical Pacific continues to feel a weak La Niña, but that it continues to decline and will likely disappear by autumn.
"This La Niña has only had a weak influence on Australian climate, particularly when compared to the last La Niña (2010-12) when Australia experienced its wettest two years on record," Watkins said. "Historically, autumns following the end of weak La Niña events have been drier than average, however, record-high water temperatures in the Tasman Sea may increase rainfall from any east coast lows that form later in the autumn and winter."
Related stories:
La Niña peak likely over
Australia swelters through third hottest year
