QBE’s European division has put its actuarial expertise to the test with a prediction for the Rugby World Cup which got underway in England this weekend.
The insurer has used all of its technical know-how on the line with a detailed description of its prediction method with New Zealand standing at the top of the tree with a 44.3% chance of success.
The prediction makes for disappointing reading for Wallabies fans as they rank fourth behind the All Blacks, England and South Africa with a 8.2% chance of winning the Webb Ellis trophy for the first time since 1999, although the prediction was made before South Africa's shock loss to Japan on Saturday.
“QBE’s actuarial experts rose to the challenge of developing a model that could be used to predict the outcome of rugby matches,” the company said on its website.
“Stochastic modelling techniques were used to simulate the entire tournament 5,000 times (across 240,000 games); every match was replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and kicks scored by each team.
“The scores achieved are based on how well each team has played in the past against opposition of similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team of playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain.
“Each simulated match uses probabilities and random numbers to generate an outcome. Modelling the entire tournament 5,000 times gives an idea of how far each team will go in the tournament and the chances of this happening.”
The teams listed with a probability of winning the tournament are as follows:
- New Zealand – 44.3%
- England – 21.5%
- South Africa – 8.4%
- Australia – 8.2%
- Ireland – 7.7%
- Wales – 4.3%
- France – 4.3%
- Argentina – 1.3%
- Scotland – 0.1%
- Samoa – 0.1%
- Others – 0.0%
