COVID-19 deaths are expected to reach 5,800 for the first half of 2022, according to a new report from the Actuaries Institute, indicating a substantial jump from the 2,100 deaths that were recorded in the first two years of the pandemic.
This number, which is 11 times the average rate of 2020 and 2021, doesn’t include COVID-19 deaths complicated by other conditions such as cancer, dementia, ischaemic heart disease, and other circulatory system diseases.
Of the 3,600 COVID-19 deaths reported by state and territory health departments between April and June, around 2,800 are estimated to have been caused by COVID-19 alone. Adding this to an earlier estimate of 3,000 COVID-19 deaths for January to March, Australia is likely to have seen a total of 5,800 deaths caused only by COVID-19 in the first six months of the year, said the report.
Moreover, the Actuaries Institute found that Australia’s total excess deaths from all causes during the pandemic is 6,800, representing an excess mortality rate of roughly 1.5%.
“We are now seeing a consistently high pattern of COVID-19 deaths,” said Jennifer Lang, spokesperson for the Actuaries Institute’s COVID-19 Mortality Working Group. “This is undoubtedly a reflection of the prevalence of COVID-19 in the community – a result of the relaxation of public health measures coupled with the much more transmissible Omicron strain.
Additionally, the Institute’s detailed modelling for excess deaths from all causes for Q1 2022 revealed the following information, based on updated data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics:
Modelling measures the number of actual deaths against predicted deaths, with adjustments for how the population grows and changes. According to Elayne Grace, chief executive of the Actuaries Institute, this has provided valuable insights over the course of the pandemic.
“We have almost six months of data since the majority of public health restrictions were relaxed,” said Grace. “It may be time to reflect on whether we have adequate public health and public policy measures in place, to offer better protection to the more vulnerable people in our communities.”
