In its latest El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) report, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has reported that while the pattern of ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific shows some La Niña-like characteristics, it currently falls short of typical La Niña thresholds.
According to BoM, most ENSO indicators in the tropical Pacific are well within neutral bounds. The Indian Ocean Dipole, which has been negative since May, has returned to neutral. The warming of sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean in the past fortnight also further diminishes the possibility of La Niña.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which has been negative since late October, remains neutral; while trade winds are currently close to average. Positive SOI values typically indicate La Niña. Only cloudiness near the Date Line continues to exhibit La Niña-like characteristics, said BoM.
Most climate models surveyed predicted that the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain cooler than average but still within the ENSO-neutral range until the end of the 2016–17 summer. Only one model indicated La Niña for the summer months.
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