There is very little chance of El Niño coming into Australia this year, with the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) downgrading the ENSO outlook from El Niño watch to inactive.
BoM said the move “follows a reversal of the early autumn warming in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and an easing of climate model outlooks”.
According to the weather bureau, the trade winds and Southern Oscillation Index, which indicates the development and intensity of El Niño and El Niña events in the Pacific Ocean, will likely remain within the neutral range.
All eight international models surveyed by BoM also suggested that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain ENSO-neutral for the second half of 2017.
The latest ENSO Outlook reverses the bureau's June report which forecasted a 50% likelihood of an El Niño forming this year.
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