It is highly likely that Australians will continue to experience near-normal weather conditions for the rest of the year, based on the latest El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) report.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), ENSO is currently neutral, with all international climate models indicating that the tropical Pacific Ocean will likely stay ENSO-neutral for the remainder of 2017. ENSO-neutral means neither La Niña or El Niño are present.
Sea surface temperatures in much of the central tropical Pacific have cooled over the last month, and are now close to the long-term average and within the neutral range. All other ENSO indicators are also within neutral levels, including the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index, cloudiness near the Date Line, and trade winds.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also consistent with climate models surveyed by the bureau, suggesting neutral conditions are likely to persist. Some models indicate that positive IOD thresholds could be reached over the coming months; however, it is unlikely that the values will be sustained long enough to be classified as a positive IOD event, which is usually associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over central and southern Australia.
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