Catastrophe re/insurance data provider PERILS has released its third loss estimate for the floods that impacted southern Germany between May 31 and June 6, 2024.
The insurance market loss is now estimated at €1.582 billion, compared to previous estimates of €1.568 billion and €1.590 billion issued six weeks and three months after the event, respectively.
The loss consists of 60% from personal lines property claims and 40% from commercial lines property claims. The majority of the losses occurred in Baden-Wuerttemberg and Bavaria, which account for over 95% of the total.
PERILS has also provided a detailed breakdown of property losses by postal codes, categorized by residential, commercial, and industrial occupancy types. Loss amounts are further divided into buildings, contents, and business interruption.
PERILS plans to release a fourth loss estimate for this event on June 6, 2025, marking one year since the flood's end date.
The €1.582 billion figure, while significant, is not unprecedented. Adjusted for today’s values, it is surpassed by other major floods in Germany, including the Elbe Floods of 2002, the Summer Floods of 2013, and the Ahrtal Floods of 2021. Based on a 24-year history, flood losses of this scale are expected to occur in Germany roughly every five to six years.
Luzi Hitz, product manager at PERILS, noted that flood insurance penetration varied significantly in the affected areas. In Bavaria, only 47% of residential buildings are insured for flood damage, compared to 97% in Baden-Wuerttemberg.
“In both regions, however, the insurance industry managed the losses efficiently and effectively with limited disruption – and as Baden-Wuerttemberg demonstrates, establishing a very high level of flood insurance penetration is possible,” Hitz said.
While Baden-Wuerttemberg demonstrates that high levels of insurance penetration are achievable, the challenge lies in encouraging more homeowners to purchase flood insurance, rather than in improving the product or increasing risk capital.
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