The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has released its latest analysis of mortality trends in England and Wales, covering data up to January 3, 2025.
The updated report highlights mortality patterns for the entirety of 2024, reflecting notable changes across different age groups.
According to the CMI’s findings, mortality in the final quarter of 2024 was lower than in any year since 2018. For the full year, death registrations were 5.1% below the 2014–2023 average and 3.7% lower than in 2023. Mortality levels in 2024 were comparable to those in 2019 and lower than any other year in the past decade.
The data also revealed significant variations in mortality rates by age. For individuals aged 75–84, mortality was 7.7% below the 10-year average. However, for adults aged 20–44, mortality was 1.7% higher than the same benchmark.
The report noted that reforms to death certification implemented on September 9, 2024, influenced the data from that point onward. The CMI indicated that while weekly mortality figures were only notably affected in the immediate weeks following the reform, the cumulative standardised mortality rate for 2024 may be around 0.25% lower.
Consequently, the reported mortality improvement for the year may be approximately 0.25% higher than it would have been without the reforms.
Cobus Daneel (pictured above), chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said that death rates in 2024 were lower than previous record lows recorded in 2019.
“2024 has had low mortality, with death rates below the previous record lows seen in 2019. However, we would typically expect mortality rates to fall over time, and mortality in 2024 has been higher than projected before the pandemic,” he said.
Daneel also highlighted the contrast in mortality trends across age groups. He pointed out that mortality among younger adults remained above the 10-year average, whereas mortality for those aged 75–84 was 8% lower than the historical trend.
What are your thoughts on this story? Please feel free to share your comments below.
