“More localised, more accurate, more supportive,” – that’s what insurer
MS Amlin wants its flood model to be, with the help of Imperial College London.
The collaboration will not only use local data from the 2015 Carlisle flood, it will also explore the potential for real-time hydrodynamic modelling solutions to improve accuracy.
“Hydrodynamics is the study of the forces exerted by fluids, and how they react with solid materials around them. We believe there is potential to use scientific understanding from this field to create more accurate models that will predict in real-time how water flows are likely to impact on buildings,” explained Tina Thomson, research manager in catastrophe modelling at MS Amlin.
She continued: “This could become a powerful tool to help people prepare for flood events and therefore mitigate losses and disruption. Research shows that flood warnings, flood emergency response plans, and setting standards on installations would make a positive difference to damage-saving efforts.”
According to Thomson, these models may speed up the payment of claims both for households and businesses.
“If we know where the locations which will experience the greatest damage are, we can make sure funds are available quickly for repairs,” she noted.
Thomson cited storms Desmond, Eva, and Frank – which caused £2 billion of damage, affecting 16,000 homes across the north of England and Scotland in 2015. She stressed that only £1.3 billion was insured, with a significant number of claims coming from areas previously modelled to be low risk.
“The next generation of probabilistic flood models will allow for more flexibility in modelling local event information, such as temporary local defences, water management systems, and different event durations as defined in the catalogue of flood events,” said Thomson. “At the heart of all this is a desire to lessen the impact – both emotionally and financially for those affected.”
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