I am sitting writing this column whilst overlooking the Casa Rosada in Buenos Aires – a building synonymous with political positivity (of a sort). It was here that Eva Duarte de Peron delivered passionate addresses to the workers of Argentina.
While it could be just the memory of Madonna belting it out to Antonio Banderas et al that has got me misty eyed, it is a building that could soon be the focus of modern-day optimism. There is a genuine sense that the winds of change, which have been blowing remorselessly in a disruptive direction for most of the past decade, may be beginning to moderate and possibly change direction.
A week ago, during the first round of the Argentinian presidential election, the (notoriously unreliable) polls were turned on their head. Sergio Massa, the Peronista candidate, won by seven points over the populist Javier Milei – almost precisely the opposite of what had been predicted. And Snr Milei is a special kind of populist.
Believing that the state should only exist to provide security and justice, he is proposing to shut down much of the government. And his financial strategy is basically to deliberately tank the Argentinian economy in order to cure it of its sizeable inflation problem. From Trump to Truss and Johnson to Jair Bolsonaro, the world has seen the dominance of disorderly policies such as this over recent years and it has not felt a safer, less risky place for it. Milei threatened to take this evolution to a new level. But now it seems possible that the Argentinian electorate, taking a lead from its Polish brethren, is about to start the push-back towards something altogether calmer and more centrist.
Meanwhile in US, and, again, this may be rose tinted thinking, it feels like the prospect of a second Trump administration may be receding a little. I contrast what we are seeing now with the period in 2015–2016 when his star was most definitely on the rise.
Back then, no matter what was thrown at him – support for a Muslim travel ban, derogatory remarks about Mexicans, misogyny – he always seemed to emerge with greater support. Now, wherever he turns, he seems to turn into more trouble – more indictments, more former allies preparing to testify against him, judges curtailing his ability to fight back through social media smears. It all galvanizes his base, but is that the force it once was? A Republican party united behind a single anti-Trump candidate – and it does need to find one to unite behind – might just see a different road towards an attempt to regain the White House.
I have written a few times here recently about the world of heightened risk we face. And, generally, I see this as an opportunity for the purveyors of risk management services. But there is a limit to the risk even our great industry can absorb. Climate and cyber feel like challenge enough. If the threat of global political instability can be diminished it would place us on a firmer footing to meet those twin challenges. And it would make the management of the climate crisis in particular more achievable without influential governments questioning whether it exists at all.
Of course, the tragic events in Gaza show that we are by no means living in a world without significant problems. But overseen by more moderate, calming global statesmen it does feel like a world in which we can seek peaceful solutions and not just deliver divisive rhetoric.
And before I get too carried away and start urging the people around me to cry for me Argentina, we should remember that the outcome here is uncertain and hardly ideal. Snr Massa is the finance minister who has partially presided over a surge to 140% inflation. It is a bit like the UK thinking Kwasi Kwarteng was the saviour we had always sought.
But it does feel like populism is on the run a little. The return of steadier political hands may be under way. And that will give the insurance industry a strong foundation on which to build our response to the wider risks we face. So, indulge my optimism. I am, after all, on holiday.
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