A recent study conducted by Moody’s RMS and Flood Re, focusing on flood risk management in the UK, has raised concerns about the limitations of current flood defences in the context of climate change.
The report, examining future flooding in York and Pontypridd – two areas with varying populations and levels of flood defence – underscores the potential challenges posed by climate change to existing flood protection measures.
The study utilised Moody’s RMS’ Industry Exposure Database for the UK Inland Flood HD Model, alongside the UK Inland Flood HD Climate Change Model, to analyse severe flood scenarios in residential areas of York and Pontypridd. It evaluated the potential property damage costs under current defence conditions and projected the impact of climate change on these costs by 2040, using Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Additionally, the study assessed the effectiveness of enhancing flood defence standards under these scenarios.
The findings highlight that climate change is likely to diminish the effectiveness of existing defence standards over the study period, resulting in notable increases in potential losses for both York and Pontypridd. In a 1-in-50-year flood scenario by 2040, York – with its higher population and stronger defences – could face additional losses ranging from £11 million to £20 million. Pontypridd, with a smaller population and weaker defences, might also see increased losses between £8 million and £17 million.
The study further reveals that while augmenting flood defences in these areas could mitigate additional losses, the benefits of such investment diminish beyond a certain point. For instance, in Pontypridd, under the 2040 RCP2.6 scenario, increasing the standard of protection (SoP) by 50% from current levels could reduce losses by £14 million.
However, doubling the SoP results in only an additional £5.5 million reduction in losses. This pattern of diminishing returns was observed in other scenarios as well, indicating the need for a more comprehensive approach to flood risk management that goes beyond solely investing in flood defences.
“The UK is one of the best defended countries in the world for flood risk, however, climate change presents an enormous challenge to defence infrastructure. Our study clearly shows that whilst investment in flood defences has an important role to play, strengthening the flood defence infrastructure is just one solution amongst multiple adaptation measures that will be required to keep the increase in flood risk driven by climate change at bay,” Moody’s RMS senior product manager Daniel Bernet said.
“This study clearly shows that whilst the UK needs to continue to invest in its flood defences, this alone is not sufficient to build its resilience to flood in the wake of climate change. It is also necessary to fully embrace property-level flood resistance measures and water management strategies. Flood Re will continue its work with the insurance market and government to ensure by the time we exit in 2039, UK housing is more resilient to flooding and householders are still able to obtain affordable insurance,” Flood Re CEO Andy Bord said.
Pertinent to this new study is recent research from the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL), supported by risk analysis from Howden, which indicates that the smallest and most vulnerable nations could lose more than their entire GDP due to extreme climate events in the coming year.
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