Hurricane Milton made landfall in Sarasota County, Florida, narrowly avoiding what could have been a much more damaging scenario for the Tampa Bay area.
According to insights from Guy Carpenter, early forecasts indicated that Milton might make landfall north of the Tampa Bay region, which could have resulted in a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet in St. Petersburg and Tampa.
Such an event would have caused widespread urban flooding, surpassing record levels seen during Hurricane Helene just weeks before. However, Milton's landfall further south helped mitigate the potential storm surge impact in Tampa Bay.
Guy Carpenter noted that Milton's counterclockwise winds, coupled with its northeastward motion, caused the maximum storm surge south of the storm's center, primarily affecting smaller communities in Sarasota and Charlotte County.
While the Tampa Bay area experienced significant rainfall and flooding, destructive storm surge was avoided due to the storm's track. The reverse surge phenomenon, previously observed in Hurricanes Ian and Irma, also played a role in reducing the storm surge.
Milton’s landfall near Siesta Key came just 13 days after Hurricane Helene struck Florida’s Big Bend region. Although the storms made landfall about 200 miles apart, both hurricanes impacted a broad swath of Florida, from Tampa to Jacksonville.
Heavy rainfall before each storm contributed to tree and power line damage from tropical storm-force winds. Guy Carpenter highlighted that remnants of debris from Helene had only been partially cleared before Milton hit, potentially increasing the losses caused by the second storm.
Event clustering, where multiple hurricanes hit the same region in one season, is relatively rare in Florida. Guy Carpenter noted that previous instances include Hurricanes Charley and Jeanne in 2004 and Dennis and Wilma in 2005. The back-to-back nature of storms like Milton and Helene poses challenges for loss attribution, particularly when distinguishing between wind and water damage.
Historically, only five other major hurricanes have made landfall in the region between where Milton and Helene struck. These include Idalia (2023), Easy (1950), and three unnamed storms from 1935, 1921, and 1896. In more recent years, storms such as Charley (2004), Ian (2022), and Irma (2017) also made landfall near this area.
According to Guy Carpenter, improvements in building codes following these storms, particularly with roof construction, have reduced losses. Early assessments of damage from Milton indicate that roofs replaced after hurricanes in the past decade performed better than those from older construction.
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