The market outlook for reinsurers holds promise but also grapples with increased uncertainty, according to the latest insights from top reinsurer Munich Re.
Between 2023 and 2025, the global reinsurance market is anticipated to experience a modest uptick in real average annual growth, slightly below levels seen between 2020 and 2022. The most substantial future growth is predicted for the Asia-Pacific and Latin America regions.
Data sourced from AM Best and Guy Carpenter also indicates that reinsurance capital, following a decrease in the previous year, is projected to rebound to US$461 billion in 2023 (compared to US$434 billion in 2022, adjusted for equity effects stemming from higher interest rates).
The market for alternative risk transfer has also remained relatively stable, with approximately US$100 billion in capital investment. Within this market, there has been a noticeable shift towards catastrophe bonds.
Accurate estimates of inflation’s trajectory hold paramount importance for insurers and reinsurers, Munich Re explained. In the case of 2021 and 2022, inflation rates exceeded expectations by almost double. While inflation has begun to decline, average consumer price inflation in industrialized nations is anticipated to remain above central banks’ targets of around 2% in the years ahead, even in the baseline scenario. Consequently, higher inflation rates are a more likely risk scenario than milder price increases, introducing substantial uncertainty.
Simultaneously, various risks are undergoing transformations, notably in the realm of natural hazards. Severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes and hail in the US, incurred losses totalling US$35 billion in the first half of 2023, with US$25 billion covered by insurance. These loss magnitudes now resemble those anticipated from major hurricanes, marking a shift from the exceptional to the norm.
Scientific research also indicates that climate change is heightening the frequency of severe thunderstorms. Market data reveals an upward trend in losses from such events, including in Europe, as well as from non-catastrophic perils like wildfires and flash floods in multiple global regions.
Munich Re board management member Thomas Blunck underscored the necessity to increase investments in ensuring and expanding (re)insurability. Key areas of investment encompass expanding risk modelling and high-definition models to better reflect escalating natural hazard risks, increasing resources and expertise in innovative and complex coverage for climate-friendly energy technologies, and harnessing data and technology to a greater extent, with Munich Re investing in expertise in the application of artificial intelligence (generative AI).
“Given the dynamic development of the market environment and how the risk landscape is evolving, we will need to increase our investments to ensure and expand (re)insurability,” Blunck said.
Stefan Golling, responsible for Global Clients and North America on Munich Re’s board of management, also highlighted the fundamental role of risk and underwriting expertise for the company. He outlined four key areas where this expertise is pivotal:
“Expert and highly disciplined underwriting is the backbone of Munich Re’s identity. We routinely adapt our rates and conditions to the changing environment, exclude systemic risks and develop solutions for new challenges. This approach ensures that we can maintain – and wherever possible even strengthen – our position as a risk carrier while sustaining profitable growth. Clients can count on us, especially in uncertain times,” Golling said.
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