Over the summer of 2024, scientists from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) conducted an in-depth analysis of the intense heat waves that affected various parts of the country.
The findings confirmed that human-driven climate change significantly intensified almost all of these extreme heat events, making them hotter and more frequent.
The ECCC’s Rapid Extreme Weather Event Attribution system, a tool designed to assess how current climate conditions compare with those from pre-industrial times, was key to the analysis. By leveraging climate models, it helps to illustrate the impact of human emissions on present-day weather.
Between June and September, ECCC experts examined 37 of the most severe heat waves recorded across 17 regions of Canada.
The research showed that climate change driven by human activities influenced the heat waves in the following ways: five were found to be at least one to two times more likely to occur; 28 were determined to be two to 10 times more likely; and four were deemed to be at least 10 times more likely.
“As the global climate continues to warm because of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, Canada is warming at roughly double the global average rate,” the government department noted.
“Spring and summer are becoming hotter, and this means earlier snowmelt, dangerous heat waves, and conditions that are ripe for wildfires.”
The Rapid Extreme Weather Event Attribution system, which has primarily focused on heat-related phenomena, is set to expand its capabilities.
Starting this winter, it will be able to assess the link between human-caused climate change and the likelihood of extreme cold events. Additionally, the plan is to extend the system to analyze extreme precipitation by next year.
“Better understanding the causes and effects of extreme weather – such as heat waves, extreme cold, and extreme precipitation – can help us better plan for, respond to, and rebuild from weather emergencies,” the ECCC said.
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