Canadians’ life expectancy is expected to increase by three years, placing many of us in the 90-plus age bracket, the Chief Actuary with the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada told a Florida symposium.
“Over the next half century, Canadian life expectancy at age 65 is projected to increase by 3 years to reach 25 years,” said Jean-Claude Ménard, Chief Actuary with OSFI. “It means that half of Canadian retirees are expected to live past age 90. Retirement is expensive and will become even more expensive in the future with improved longevity.”
Ménard was speaking at the SOA Living to 100 International Symposium in Orland, Fla. Friday, on the topic “Mortality Projections of Public Pension Plans in Canada and its financial implications.”
Some of the more interesting findings presented by Ménard include:
- Canadian mortality rates at ages 15-54 are significantly lower than U.S. rates;
- Mortality rates for older age groups have decreased over the last 80 years, more so over the last four decades for males;
- For ages 65-74, seven deaths per 1,000 are from cancer, while only three deaths per 1,000 are from heart diseases;
- Male mortality rates for ages 75-84 for Canada are projected to become lower than U.S. female mortality rates.
Of note, Ménard pointed to the closing of the gap between male and female mortality rates, as males improve to meet their female counterparts, and how such projection models can lead to deceptive results. (continued.)
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“Due to the higher recent mortality improvement rates for males, this scenario leads to a narrowing of the gap between male and female life expectancies at age 65 and, eventually, higher life expectancy for males than for females by 2026 and thereafter,” he said. “In 2075, male life expectancy would surpass the one of females by over 5 years. This scenario serves as a reminder that setting future assumptions only on recent experience may lead to unintended results.”
The realistic goal of society reaching a life expectancy of 100 years will be realized within this century for males (2094), said Ménard, while females wouldn’t catch up until the year 2121.
“If mortality rates decrease at the same pace as observed over the past 15 years,” he said, “life expectancy of 100 could be attained in 85 years. It is a professional duty of the actuary to examine all available information in order to develop best-estimate mortality assumptions.”
