Political risk and violence remain among the top 10 global business risks for the third consecutive year, according to the Allianz Risk Barometer 2025, reflecting sustained concern among companies across sectors and geographies.
A recent report from Allianz Commercial highlights civil unrest as the foremost concern for over 50% of business respondents, underlining the growing frequency and duration of such incidents worldwide.
Since 2017, more than 800 major anti-government protests have taken place in over 150 countries, excluding ongoing unrest in the Balkans and Türkiye. In 2024 alone, over 160 events were recorded, 18% of which continued for longer than three months.
With 2024 marked as a “super election year,” Allianz notes that subsequent government policy shifts could prompt new protest movements and tensions. Trade disputes and economic strain may also act as catalysts.
The report further identifies a rising trend in terrorism linked to political and religious extremism. These developments, driven by both far-right and far-left ideologies, add to the concerns businesses must address amid evolving geopolitical risks.
Srdjan Todorovic (pictured above), head of political violence and hostile environment solutions at Allianz Commercial, says that political violence remains a persistent global risk, attributing it to prevailing sentiments of political populism, economic mismanagement, and growing inequality.
One of the more noteworthy situations involving civil unrest is the pushback against Tesla, whose owner Elon Musk is facing backlash from his political engagements.
The "Tesla Takedown" movement emerged as a form of protest against Musk's political involvement, leading to demonstrations at Tesla dealerships and incidents of vandalism targeting Tesla properties.
Besides this, Tesla reported a 13% drop in first-quarter deliveries, with 336,681 vehicles delivered globally. This decline is attributed to factors including Musk's political activities and the resulting public backlash.
Insurers have paid out approximately US$13 billion from just seven civil unrest incidents globally in recent years, highlighting the escalating financial impact of such events.
The disruptive effects of strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) now represent the primary political violence exposure for many businesses. Countries such as Colombia, France, South Africa, the UK and the US have identified civil unrest as their top concern.
In 2024, the 20 countries with the most frequent protests and riots recorded over 80,000 incidents, with India, the US, France, Germany, Türkiye and Spain among the most affected, according to Allianz Research.
Insurers have also observed an increase in SRCC-related losses, both in frequency and severity. In recent years, incidents such as the riots in Chile and South Africa have generated insured losses exceeding $10 billion.
In some high-risk regions, SRCC losses have matched or exceeded those typically caused by natural disasters. Elsewhere, even lower-impact events have led to long-term societal shifts.
Todorovic says the underlying factors behind civil unrest, including inflation, inequality, fuel and food prices, environmental concerns, and fears over civil rights, have not diminished.
The report also outlines the rising incidence of terrorism by religious and political groups. Islamist threats in Europe have increased, with the number of attacks and plots growing over the past year. Terrorist incidents in the West rose by 63%, with Europe seeing its cases double to 67.
More than 100 terrorism and right-wing extremist incidents were reported in 2024, mostly in the US, followed by Germany. Far-left groups have also targeted individuals and companies perceived to contribute to issues like climate change and inequality.
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