The risk to vessels, undersea cables, and offshore oil installations is growing due to the increasing availability of advanced weapons and the actions of states like Russia and Iran that challenge international maritime laws, according to a new report from WTW. The Political Risk Index highlighted the expanding threat of “gray zone” aggression—hostile activities that fall short of outright war—as a key risk to global commerce and infrastructure.
The report identified vulnerabilities in the marine and aerospace sectors, drawing attention to incidents such as undersea cable sabotage, unauthorized oil exports via shadow fleets, and attacks on GPS systems. These sectors are increasingly targeted through gray zone activities like cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and the destruction of key infrastructure.
One alarming trend is the expansion of the global shadow fleet used to export oil. The report noted these vessels often lack proper insurance, maintenance, and navigation compliance, making them both a safety risk and a potential enabler of unlawful activities. Such actions exacerbate supply chain disruptions, which, according to WTW’s earlier 2024 political risk survey, affected 69% of respondents globally this year.
Gray zone aggression has significant repercussions for the insurance industry and global trade, noted the report. Attacks on vessels can lead to the exclusion or cancelation of insurance coverage, forcing shipping routes to be altered and delaying the flow of goods. While trade disruption insurance provides some relief, the unpredictability of gray zone incidents could pose a growing challenge to insurers and businesses.
Samuel Wilkin, director of political risk analytics at WTW, noted the critical role of insurance in mitigating these risks: “Without insurance, many ships will not sail and planes will not fly, so improving our understanding of gray zone risks is vital for the protection of people and assets and the health of global commerce. These attacks appear to have soared in recent years, for many reasons.”
WTW’s research outlines three primary gray zone flashpoints:
The report emphasized that the growing use of hybrid warfare—combining cyber, economic, and physical tactics—has been facilitated by technological advancements. These include the weaponization of drones, cyberattacks on critical systems, and GPS spoofing, which has become a rising concern in aerospace.
As gray zone activities continue to evolve, the report calls for a strong understanding of these risks to better assess and mitigate their impact. WTW highlighted the need for international cooperation and innovation in both policy and insurance products to address the challenges posed by gray zone aggression.
“Hybrid warfare is likely to continue to rise and evolve, so insurers need to be able to understand the implications of ambiguous gray zone activities to properly assess risk,” Wilkin noted.
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