According to the latest analysis released by CoreLogic, approximately 500,000 single-family and multifamily homes in the Tampa Bay and Sarasota metropolitan areas are at potential risk from storm surge damage due to Hurricane Milton.
The properties have a combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) estimated at $123 billion. These figures are based on the October 8, 2024, forecast by the National Hurricane Center, which projected Hurricane Milton making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane.
Jon Schneyer, director of catastrophe response at CoreLogic, stated that current forecasts indicate a direct landfall over Tampa Bay with sustained winds of 125 mph. He noted that small changes in the storm’s landfall location could significantly affect the financial impact.
“A direct landfall, or one just north of Tampa Bay, would be a worst-case scenario because the winds and storm surge flooding would be most intense. A more southern landfall would reduce the impact in Tampa Bay but devastate communities along the coast near Sarasota,” he said.
CoreLogic’s analysis breaks down the potential impact by hurricane category for both the Tampa and Sarasota metropolitan areas. The estimates reflect the number of homes at risk and the associated RCV for each hurricane category, from Category 1 through Category 5. RCV estimates represent the cost to rebuild the homes entirely, accounting for current localized costs of materials, equipment, and labor.
The values do not include the cost of land and assume 100% destruction of the at-risk properties.
Hurricane-driven storm surge occurs when high winds and low pressure within the storm cause water to accumulate and move inland as the hurricane makes landfall. This phenomenon can lead to extensive property damage, especially in coastal areas.
CoreLogic’s data indicates that as Hurricane Milton's path becomes more defined, the areas most at risk will narrow. The company’s estimates are based on detailed property characteristics and real-time data to assess potential exposure.
What are your thoughts on this story? Please feel free to share your comments below.
