Changing climate drives 2024 hurricane challenges – Allianz

Risk analysts emphasize flooding and secondary perils as key future storm threats

Changing climate drives 2024 hurricane challenges – Allianz

Catastrophe & Flood

By Kenneth Araullo

The 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season was marked by unusually warm ocean temperatures, evolving El Niño conditions, and atmospheric patterns that influenced storm activity.

These factors contributed to intense storms that impacted the Caribbean, Gulf Coast, and Eastern Seaboard, creating challenges for communities and infrastructure, according to Allianz Commercial's analysis.

The season began with an early and powerful start, with Hurricane Beryl in July becoming the earliest recorded Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic. After a four-week pause during the peak months of August and September, activity resumed with major hurricanes Helene and Milton.

As of Nov. 25, the season recorded 18 named storms, 11 of which became hurricanes, including five major hurricanes. Of these, five hurricanes made landfall in the United States.

One of the season's unusual features was a four-week pause in storm formation during the height of hurricane activity, the longest since 1968. Allianz identified several atmospheric and environmental factors contributing to this anomaly.

A northward-shifted African monsoon altered the typical path of storm formation, causing thunderstorms to emerge over cooler Atlantic waters that limited their development into tropical cyclones.

Additionally, dry, dusty air from the Sahara suppressed the moisture needed for storms to organize, while stable upper atmospheric conditions further inhibited storm formation. The delayed onset of La Niña conditions also disrupted expected wind shear patterns that typically favor hurricane formation.

Hurricane Helene was one of the most significant storms of the season, with a diameter of 670 km (420 mi) that made it the third largest storm to hit the Gulf Coast since 1988. The storm brought extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal inundation, severely affecting several southeastern US states.

Allianz notes that Helene’s scale resulted in extensive exposure to storm-related hazards, highlighting the risks posed by large systems, even when their wind speeds are not the highest.

Hurricane Milton made headlines for its record-breaking intensification, becoming the fastest Atlantic storm to strengthen from a tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane. Its maximum sustained winds increased from 35 mph to 160 mph (56 km/h to 256 km/h) in just over 48 hours.

Allianz underscored this trend of rapid intensification as an increasing concern for risk management and forecasting.

Mabé Villar Vega (pictured above), a catastrophe risk research analyst at Allianz Commercial, emphasized that the season highlighted the growing influence of secondary perils, such as heavy rainfall and inland flooding.

“The long calm period in the season raised questions about its implications, but this season served to reinforce the complexities of hurricane behavior and climate interactions,” Villar Vega said.

Over the past decade, heavy rainfall and flooding have become some of the most costly and deadly aspects of hurricanes, according to Allianz’s research. The firm recommends prioritizing these hazards in risk assessments to better address the changing nature of storm impacts.

Keerthy Mohandas, also a catastrophe risk research analyst at Allianz Commercial, added that the rise of extreme storm events calls for innovative risk transfer methods and resilience measures.

“By learning from the experiences of this season and adapting to evolving risks, we can better prepare for future events, maintain financial stability, and safeguard lives and infrastructure,” Mohandas said.

As the 2024 season concludes, Allianz’s insights suggest the need for ongoing adaptation in risk assessment, insurance solutions, and resilience planning.

What are your thoughts on this story? Please feel free to share your comments below.

Related Stories

Keep up with the latest news and events

Join our mailing list, it’s free!