US property and casualty (P&C) insurers are poised to see some relief in 2024, according to new analysis by Fitch Ratings.
Fitch’s report highlighted the possibility for statutory profit improvement driven by a personal auto line recovery. It also pointed to the continuation of industry premium growth, tempered by a combined ratio persistently above 100% and a return on surplus hovering below historical norms.
“Following two years of large underwriting losses, auto results will show more material improvement as rate increases take hold and claims severity trends moderate, though a return to segment underwriting profits is less likely,” said managing director Jim Auden.
“Countering the auto rebound are continued challenges P&C insurers are facing in managing catastrophe exposures and loss-cost uncertainty in many segments amid higher inflation and growing claims litigation activity and costs.”
Despite the commercial lines sector maintaining underwriting profits, Fitch further suggested that sector gains may narrow in 2024. However, positive pricing trends are expected to persist, with some uncertainty for property and commercial auto.
Additionally, the report highlighted the impact of natural catastrophe losses, as 2023 surpassed prior norms due to an elevated number of convective storm events.
The year also saw lackluster financial results stemming from substantial year-over-year underwriting losses and diminished statutory earnings, according to Fitch, primarily attributable to the weakened performance in personal auto and homeowners segments.
Last week, AM Best reported that the US P&C sector incurred a net underwriting loss of $32.2 billion in the first nine months of 2023. This was $7.6 billion higher than the losses it reported during the same period in the previous year.
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