Severe weather across several states in early November has left insurers facing potential losses that may total hundreds of millions of dollars, Aon has reported. The storms unleashed two EF-3 tornadoes with winds topping 140 mph in Oklahoma, triggering extensive property damage and widespread flooding in Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas.
In southeastern Oklahoma City, authorities reported that a tornado severely damaged 136 buildings, of which 40 were destroyed. In the town of Harrah, additional extensive damage was documented, Aon said. Other tornadoes were confirmed in Tulsa and Adair County, Oklahoma, as well as Fayetteville, Arkansas.
According to Aon, the November 2-5 storm system brought persistent thunderstorms and repeated heavy rainfall. This weather pattern led to severe urban flooding in the St. Louis metro area, where the Meramec River reached its major flood stage, resulting in significant impact across the affected communities.
In California, a separate wildfire event known as the Mountain Fire, exacerbated by dry, windy conditions, forced the evacuation of over 14,000 residents in Ventura County. The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) noted that while structural damage had not yet been confirmed, the fire remained a direct threat to critical infrastructure. Nearly 14,000 households were reported to be in the fire’s at-risk zone.
Aon’s assessment highlighted that the primary losses in these events are likely to be retained by insurers, adding to the $102 billion in global catastrophe-related losses recorded in the first nine months of 2024. US-based disasters accounted for $80 billion of these losses.
Last month, Aon reported that hurricanes Helene and Milton, with insured losses projected between $34 billion and $54 billion, are unlikely to disrupt the stability of the US commercial property reinsurance market. It noted that strong industry capitalization and rate increases from 2023 position insurers to handle these losses effectively.
Aon’s analysis showed a substantial policyholder surplus of $1.1 trillion. Aon projected a steady 2025 renewal market, with the potential for flat or lower rates due to improved underwriting results.
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