A powerful low-pressure system triggered a widespread severe weather outbreak from March 14-16, affecting the eastern Plains, Midwest, Southeast, and Gulf Coast, according to insights from Guy Carpenter.
March is typically the month when severe thunderstorms increase in frequency as winter transitions to spring. The system brought large hail, wind gusts, and multiple strong tornadoes.
Guy Carpenter notes that additional strong storm systems and severe weather outbreaks are likely to continue through the final weeks of March. This follows a relatively quiet start to the month, with atmospheric conditions now shifting toward increased thunderstorm activity.
Insured losses from hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, and floods surpassed US$100 billion globally for the fifth consecutive year in 2024. Severe thunderstorms alone contributed over US$51 billion to these insured losses.
The US experienced 24 weather or climate disaster events, each incurring losses exceeding US$1 billion. These events included 17 severe storms, four tropical cyclones, one wildfire, and two winter storms, collectively leading to 418 fatalities.
In October, Milton struck Florida's west coast, leading to estimated economic losses between $25 billion and $50 billion. The hurricane caused extensive wind and flood damage, particularly impacting coastal communities.
The Southern US also faces elevated wildfire risks, particularly across northern Texas and Oklahoma, where fire conditions are considered extremely critical. Recent wildfires have already impacted areas such as Long Island, the Carolinas, Wisconsin, and coastal Texas.
According to Guy Carpenter, persistent dry conditions in parts of the Southern Plains could sustain heightened wildfire risks into the coming week.
Long-term projections for the upcoming severe weather season indicate a mix of contributing factors. A weakening La Niña event in the equatorial Pacific may slightly reduce severe weather frequency compared to the record-breaking activity of the past two years.
However, near-record high sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and North Atlantic are expected to increase moisture availability, fueling stronger thunderstorms.
Persistent drought across northern Mexico and the southwestern US remains a concern, with potential implications for storm activity in the coming months. Guy Carpenter notes that while some variables suggest an active spring severe weather season, conditions are not entirely aligned for a repeat of the extreme outbreaks seen in the past two years.
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