The election of Donald Trump to the White House is a global risk on a par with jihadi terrorism, a new report from The Economist suggests.
According to the magazine’s global forecasting service, both potential events represent the same global risk intensity – moderate probability, but high impact.
Although The Economist admits that Trump has given few details of his policies, the details he has given are prone to ‘constant revision’.
Nevertheless, ‘certain themes are apparent’.
“In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war – and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016,” the magazine said.
“His militaristic tendencies toward the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.”
A Trump win was rated riskier than Britain leaving the European Union or an armed clash in the South China Sea, but the research firm rated China encountering a ‘hard landing’ or sharp economic slowdown and Russia’s interventions in Ukraine and Syria preceding a new ‘cold war’ among events seen as more dangerous.
The Economist does admit it does not expect Trump to gain the presidency – favouring his most likely opponent, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton – but there are ‘risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack’ or a sudden economic downturn.
Meanwhile the forecasting service considers terrorism, if it escalates, to ‘no doubt begin to dent consumer and business confidence, which in turn could threaten to end the five-year bull run on the US and European stock markets.”
If either come to pass, insurance may be flimsier than a hypothetical wall along the Mexican border.
