The Earthquake Commission (EQC) is funding research that aims to provide a more accurate understanding of the effect of an eruption on the Auckland volcanic field.
Dr. Stuart Mead, from Massey University, will lead the research project to answer the question: If an eruption threatens in Auckland, is evacuation always the most effective solution?
“The aim is to provide emergency managers with simple and clear information to support their decisions about how many people to evacuate if an eruption threatens,” Mead said.
Mead noted the biggest life-risk from Auckland volcanoes is from the surge – a 200-600°C mixture of fragmented rock and gas travelling along the ground at around 200km per hour at the beginning of the eruption.
“The surge affects a smaller area than the ash fall, but inflicts a lot of damage,” he explained. “We compare it to a bomb blast. It’s vital to make sure that people are not in the surge area when an eruption happens.
“And we know from earlier research that most Auckland Volcanic Field eruptions have had a surge,” he added.
Currently, planning in Auckland means evacuating up to a five-kilometre radius for nearly 435,000 people.
“What we’re doing is taking the research that’s already been done on surges, and using computer modelling to get more accurate information about where a surge would travel and create damage,” Mead said. “We are expecting to be able to better define surge damage zones, which could assist in both long-term and evacuation plans.
“Given the potential impact on people, industry, road and air travel and tourism, this information could be very useful,” he added.
The team aims to come up with a model that emergency managers can use to make the best decision. It will show the effects of a surge and the confidence level in the prediction.
EQC’s Science and Education Manager Dr. Richard Smith, meanwhile, regards the project as a great example of using scientific research for local action.
“Dr Mead and his team will make a very practical contribution to volcano risk management in New Zealand,” Smith said. “Getting a better understanding of where and how far a volcanic surge is likely to travel will help Auckland’s emergency managers be more effective in managing evacuation.”
EQC funds $16 million of research annually to reduce the impact of natural disaster on people and property. This project is funded through EQC’s 2018 Biennial Research Grants.
