New Zealand experienced a significant decrease in net immigration in November, reaching a 15-month low, which may indicate a slowdown in the recent population surge that has been a cause for concern among policymakers.
Statistics New Zealand reported that an estimated 4,637 immigrants arrived in November, a substantial decrease from the revised figure of 10,539 in October and the lowest since August 2022.
Over the year, annual immigration figures also showed a slowdown, decreasing to 127,409 from a record high of 132,294 in October, according to a report from Bloomberg.
This influx of foreign arrivals over the past year has significantly impacted New Zealand's population, leading to the Reserve Bank's warning about potential inflationary pressures. These pressures are primarily due to increased demand for housing and rental accommodations.
The Reserve Bank has expressed concerns that, without indications of easing price pressures, there might be a heightened risk of an interest rate hike in 2024. An earlier report revealed that the expansion of the labour pool in New Zealand has slowed for the second consecutive quarter, indicating a potential decline in the influx of foreign workers.
In December, Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr commented on the unexpectedly high levels of net inward migration. This continuous trend could mean that the Reserve Bank might have to maintain a more restrictive monetary policy for an extended period.
Despite projections from the Reserve Bank and other forecasters anticipating a slowdown in immigration over the next two years, these predictions have been consistently challenged by regular upward revisions to the data. This inconsistency is attributed to the methodology used in compiling these statistics.
The latest report also included revisions to previous data, with November's monthly net immigration figures adjusted upwards by 1,210, and the annual total increased by 3,375 from what was previously reported.
The report noted that the sharp decline in November’s monthly immigration figures was due to an increase in departures by both New Zealand citizens and foreigners. However, the year through November still saw a record number of 222,400 foreign arrivals, a significant increase from 80,200 in the previous year.
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