The UK faces a substantial terrorism threat level, indicating an attack is likely, according to Pool Re’s 2024 Annual Threat Report.
Among those being investigated for potential involvement in terrorism by MI5, 13% are under the age of 18. Islamist terrorism remains the primary threat, accounting for approximately 75% of MI5's counter-terrorism caseload. Extreme Right-Wing terrorism represents 25% and is expected to remain a significant long-term threat.
Since March 2017, UK police and security services have disrupted 43 late-stage attack plots, including three in the last 12 months – two Islamist-inspired and one Extreme Right-Wing-inspired. The report emphasizes that future attacks are likely to involve low-sophistication methods such as bladed weapons, vehicles, or fire.
While more complex attacks, such as those using improvised explosive devices or firearms, remain possible, they are less likely due to the challenges in planning and execution.
The report identifies several factors contributing to the UK’s terrorism risk. The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict is seen as a potential long-term driver of radicalization, though no immediate increase in terrorism incidents has been observed.
Climate change is also cited as an influence, with its destabilizing effects fueling terrorism in affected regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Other drivers include the refugee crisis, the cost-of-living crisis, and global instability, all of which have the potential to foster disenfranchisement and susceptibility to radicalization.
Beyond terrorism, the report highlights heightened threats from hostile foreign states. MI5 has reported a 48% increase in state threat investigations over the past year. Russia is noted for its use of proxies and organized criminal groups to destabilize the UK.
Iran has been linked to 20 lethal plots targeting British citizens and residents since January 2022. China is also identified as maintaining its intent and capability to influence the UK through espionage and covert actions.
The report underscores the challenges for the insurance industry in assessing and underwriting risks associated with terrorism and geopolitical instability. Insider threats, driven by financial pressures from the cost-of-living crisis, are noted as a potential risk to businesses.
Meanwhile, the broader implications of global instability are expected to shape the threat landscape into 2025 and beyond.
The report predicts that Islamist terrorism will continue to dominate the UK’s threat landscape in the next 12 months. Extreme Right-Wing terrorism is also expected to remain a significant concern.
Other risks, such as the involvement of hostile states using proxies and criminal organizations, are expected to persist. Additionally, personal grievances and radicalization influenced by regions of instability like Afghanistan and Syria could further drive individual actors toward malicious activity.
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