Windstorm Eowyn, known as Storm Gilles in Germany, was the fifth named storm of the season by the UK Met Office. The storm reached Ireland in the morning of Jan. 24 before moving across the UK during the day, bringing strong winds and disruption.
According to Guy Carpenter, Eowyn produced wind gusts exceeding 70 mph in Northern Ireland and over 80 mph in parts of Ireland, with a peak gust of 114 mph recorded at Mace Head – the highest wind speed ever recorded in Ireland.
Red wind warnings were issued by Met Éireann in Ireland and the UK Met Office in central and southwestern Scotland, as well as Northern Ireland. Amber warnings were in place for northern England and Scotland, with additional yellow warnings across other parts of the UK.
While gusts over populated areas in Ireland were lower than expected, the storm remains the most severe to impact the country since Storm Tini (also known as Darwin) in 2014.
According to Guy Carpenter, Storm Eowyn’s wind-insured loss return period is estimated to be around 1-in-7 years for Ireland and less than 1-in-5 years for the UK. These estimates are based on loss models from Moody’s RMS HD Europe Windstorm Model and Verisk’s Extra-Tropical Cyclone Model for Europe.
The storm was less severe than previous windstorms such as Dudley-Eunice-Franklin and Kyrill.
Preliminary insured loss estimates for Storm Eowyn have been calculated using EuroTempest wind fields at CRESTA resolution for the storm’s active period between Jan. 23 and Jan. 25.
Guy Carpenter’s estimates incorporate damage curves by country and line of business, as well as average claim values, based on PERILS industry loss and exposure data.
PERILS Wind-Jeannie forecasts provided loss estimates at a market level throughout the event, issuing updates every 12 hours with forward-looking 72-hour projections. During the period of Jan. 22-23, Wind-Jeannie’s estimated loss forecasts for Europe ranged from approximately €362 million to €995 million.
For the UK, estimated losses were between £116 million and £451 million, while losses in Ireland ranged from €198 million to €451 million.
Guy Carpenter noted that Eowyn’s wind losses may be accompanied by additional flooding impacts, though the extent of water-related claims is yet to be determined. The storm’s impact on the reinsurance market will depend on final loss settlements and whether primary insurers' retentions will be exceeded.
Storm Eowyn occurred in a broader market context that has already seen significant losses in 2024. The reinsurance industry has been addressing claims from hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as the Baltimore bridge collapse, which is expected to be one of the largest marine losses in history. At the same time, insurers have been strengthening US casualty reserves.
Despite this backdrop, Guy Carpenter indicated that the cyber reinsurance sector has continued to show profitability and stability. The rapid re-underwriting of portfolios following increased ransomware threats has contributed to loss stabilization in recent years.
Additionally, new capacity has entered both the insurance and reinsurance markets, leading to more competitive pricing and improved terms for cedants.
While Storm Eowyn was not as severe as some previous storms in terms of insured wind losses, it underscores the continued risk of European windstorms for insurers and reinsurers.
Guy Carpenter noted that insurers have increasingly relied on catastrophe models to assess risk, though variability in storm intensity and localized impacts continue to challenge risk assessment processes.
Another low-pressure system, Storm Herminia, brought additional windy conditions to the UK on Jan. 26-27, but its impact is not expected to be significant. Looking ahead, the frequency and intensity of windstorms will remain a key concern for insurers, particularly as climate patterns influence the behavior of extreme weather events.
With the reinsurance market continuing to navigate the effects of recent natural catastrophe losses, the final impact of Storm Eowyn will depend on claims development and potential secondary perils such as flooding.
Guy Carpenter emphasized that the industry will continue to refine its modeling and risk management approaches to adapt to evolving storm patterns and market conditions.
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