Howden Re’s catastrophe research team has provided an update on Tropical Storm Milton, which is expected to impact the Florida Peninsula later this week.
Currently classified as a hurricane in the western Gulf, Milton is forecasted to make landfall between Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday, with the strongest consensus predicting a direct hit on Tampa Bay.
Anna Neely (pictured above), head of catastrophe R&D at Howden Re, outlined the latest landfall forecast. Milton is projected to strengthen to a Category 3 hurricane with wind speeds of around 120 mph by the time it reaches Florida. Potential landfall points range from Cedar Key to Fort Myers, with Tampa Bay being the most likely location for direct impact.
“There is some uncertainty in the current forecast,” Neely said. “The storm could either approach more slowly and make a weaker landfall or come in faster and hit with stronger winds. Regardless, Milton is expected to bring a large storm surge.”
Justin Roth, associate director of catastrophe analytics R&D at Howden Re, added that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts Milton will reach Category 3 or higher strength by the time it makes landfall.
He emphasized that the storm is in a favorable environment for rapid intensification over the next 48 to 60 hours as it moves over the Gulf Loop, a pattern seen in previous major hurricanes like Ian, Michael, and Wilma. However, Milton could encounter strong wind shearing after this period, making timing critical for forecasting the storm's strength.
Roth said that there is still some uncertainty regarding Milton’s exact track and timing, with models showing possible landfall locations from Cedar Key to Fort Myers. Most predictions, however, point to a direct hit near Tampa Bay.
Storm surge is a primary concern, particularly for the Tampa-St. Petersburg area. Roth noted that storm surges from Hurricane Helene in 2024 reached seven to nine feet. If Milton stays on its current trajectory and strength, surges could reach as high as 15 feet in some areas.
Historically, Tampa Bay has experienced few direct hurricane hits, with the last major one occurring in 1921. That storm, a Category 3 hurricane, brought storm surges up to 11 feet, causing widespread flooding and damage.
The population and infrastructure of the Tampa Bay area have grown significantly since then, meaning the potential impact of a similar storm today could be far more severe.
Roth noted that Tampa Bay has had several near-misses in recent years, including Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Hurricane Elsa in 2021, both of which caused localized flooding and wind damage but did not make direct landfall in the area.
A direct hit from Milton, especially with its potential Category 3 or 4 strength, could result in significant flooding, storm surges, and power outages.
“The combination of Tampa’s geographical vulnerability and its long ‘hurricane drought’ has created significant concern about what a major landfall might mean for the region. As we saw with Helene (2024) [causing] severe flooding and power outages; a direct hit from a Category 3 or 4 like Milton could be catastrophic,” Roth said.
“Historically, the Florida west coast, particularly in October, is vulnerable to late-season hurricanes, which tend to approach from the southwest and follow paths similar to what we are seeing with Milton. Over 60% of hurricanes that impact Florida’s west coast happen after the climatological peak of the season in mid-September,” he said.
What are your thoughts on this story? Please feel free to share your comments below.
