Pool Re has released its latest
Terrorism Threat and Mitigation Report, and simply put: “Attacks are likely to continue.”
Analysing recent terrorist attacks, as well as outlining and assessing the broad spectrum of threats, Pool Re’s report revealed that Islamist extremists – Daesh and al Qaeda associates, in particular – remain the principal threat to the UK.
The terrorism reinsurance pool cited what it called the “industrialisation of terrorism” by Daesh, which encourages individuals to use readily available weapons and cause mass casualties rather than inflict damage on infrastructure.
As for other actors, Pool Re said the threat from Far-Right extremism continues while the Dissident Republican threat remains substantial and is unlikely to reduce. According to head of risk analysis Ed Butler CBE DSO, domestic and international threats will become increasingly interrelated.
“This report aims to inform, raise awareness, and provide an accessible and expert resource on the evolving terrorist threat,” said chief executive Julian Enoizi. “By supplying Pool Re’s members and by extension their clients across the UK with knowledge and insight, businesses can better protect themselves, their employees, and the UK as a whole.”
Enoizi cited a key addition to the third instalment of the report – a database of global terrorism incidents aimed at aiding terrorism modelling. According to Pool Re’s terrorism database, which excluded acts of insurgency or war in recognised areas of conflict, 115 events caused 779 deaths and 3,044 injuries in 2016.
The majority (66%) took place within Europe, including Turkey. While it is recognised that Turkey sits outside the European Union, the country is considered within Pool Re’s analysis because of its geographical position and “nexus with the modern terrorism threat landscape.”
“The factors which govern frequency and severity are not possible to determine with the same degree of accuracy as other perils,” noted Enoizi. “However, this database and the factors which we are now considering in this analysis enable us to work towards creating a more robust terrorism model.”
He said the data also illustrates the changing nature of the threat, with extremists inflicting massive civilian casualties rather than damage to property – a fundamental shift in the types of economic losses incurred.
“The majority of terrorism insurance policies require physical damage to trigger a claim,” explained the Pool Re chief executive. “This creates gaps in insurance coverage as recent terrorist events, whilst they have caused significant loss of life, have also resulted in severe disruption to business, and associated financial losses, but with minimal or no damage to commercial property.”
According to Enoizi, Pool Re has been working to fill the previously unforeseen coverage gap since last year’s attacks in Europe. He added that in light of the recent spate of UK attacks, intensive talks at Ministerial level are now under way, since extending Pool Re’s cover requires a change in legislation.
“As terrorists’ tactics evolve, insurance must change in response,” he said.
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