So after months of waiting and anticipation, the Supreme Court delivered its verdict on a landmark case about Brexit less than one hour ago – and determined that Parliament will be required to give its approval before talks about leaving the European Union can officially begin.
The news is seen as a blow to Prime Minister Theresa May – albeit one that was largely expected – as the government’s argument that it could begin negotiations without Parliament’s prior agreement was ruled out significantly by the 11 justices, with a vote of eight to three. All this means that Parliament must sanction the trigger of Article 50 before it can be implemented – this is the official notification of the UK’s plans to leave the EU.
So what happens next?
It is possible for Theresa May to challenge the decision in the European Court of Justice but that is widely seen as unlikely because it would throw off her timetable of triggering Article 50 before the end of March. Indeed it would arguably undermine the decision to leave the EU if the government were to refer to a European court over a British court.
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So now, the House of Lords and House of Commons will have to vote in favour of triggering Article 50 – although how this will be done is not year clear, with possibilities including a primary legislation and a parliamentary motion.
What is predictable is that any bill should be short and indeed may only contain one clause – however, it may be stalled by MPs from other parties wanting to make amendments or discuss the issues surrounding it. It is hoped the bill can be passed through Commons before the February recess, meaning the Lords can then consider it and it could still become law before the end of March. Though there are many MPs that want to see it delayed they are outnumbered by those who wish for the government to get moving and meet the timetable of exiting the European Union before the next general election in May, 2020.
As for the chances of Brexit itself being stopped, that seems highly unlikely with very few Conservative MPs likely to vote against it. As the bulk of Labour MPs have also said they will not block the process, it seems that Brexit is still destined to go ahead even if its timetable has hit a stumbling block with today’s decision..
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