In its latest El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has forecast around a 50% chance of El Niño forming this year.
According to bureau, ENSO remains neutral while the ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño Watch, meaning there is roughly a 50% chance that El Nino will develop in 2017. Four of the eight international climate models suggest that the thresholds will be exceeded during the second half of the year.
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Several indicators, meanwhile, have shown little or no increase in several weeks, suggesting that the phenomenon’s development has stalled for now.
The latest ENSO Outlook has also seen virtually all models reducing the extent of predicted ocean warming compared to earlier in the year, which means that if El Niño does form, it is likely to be weak.
El Niño is usually associated with a drier than average winter and spring over eastern Australia.
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