In its official spring outlook released this week, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has forecasted warmer-than-usual days and frosty mornings for most parts of Australia this spring, as the country says goodbye to a “very warm and dry winter.”
“The rainfall outlook for September to November indicates below-average rainfall is likely for south western parts of Western Australia, however there is the possibility of above-average rainfall in areas near southeast Queensland and far east Gippsland,” said Dr Andrew Watkins, BoM's climate prediction manager.
And while Australia's climate will likely remain ENSO-neutral in the next three months, Watkins said other climate drivers may influence spring.
“Warm waters in the central Indian Ocean may result in higher pressures south of Australia, resulting in more easterly winds, keeping the west drier than average,” he said.
Scott Williams, senior forecaster at the bureau, said that much of southeastern Australia will experience blustery conditions by the weekend after a brief taste of spring.
“After a chilly morning with inland frosts, the southeast of the country can expect a settled first day of spring with plenty of sunshine and light winds,” he said. “Temperatures will struggle though with southeastern capitals, only reaching 16-18 °C. The first few days of spring will bring changeable weather across the south as a cold front moves across South Australia Saturday then Victoria, Tasmania, and southern New South Wales on Sunday,” he said.
The bureau said Australia had experienced the warmest and driest winter on record, particularly in eastern Australia. This meant increased fire risk. Already, bushfires have occurred in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, Watkins said.
“In contrast, winter nights have been notably cooler than average in areas such as the Murray–Darling Basin,” he said.
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